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Yarlung Zangbo Dam and a New Threat to India
Context: In a move with far-reaching consequences for India’s strategic and ecological interests, China has officially begun construction on a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo River — just before it enters India as the Siang and then Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh.
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- With a planned investment of $170 billion, it will be China’s biggest infrastructure project since the Three Gorges Dam, aiming to boost domestic growth and consolidate Beijing’s upstream control.
What Is the Scale and Strategic Purpose of China’s Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project?
- The project includes five cascade hydropower stations over a 50-km stretch with a steep 2,000-meter drop, offering a combined generation capacity of 60 GW — nearly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam.
- While the extent of water storage has not been disclosed, such cascade systems often include strategic storage capacity, allowing China to regulate downstream water flow, a matter of serious concern for India.
Why Are There Fears of a ‘Water Bomb’ in Arunachal Pradesh?
- In Arunachal Pradesh, particularly the Siang region, alarm is growing.
- On July 9, Chief Minister Pema Khandu stated that the Chinese dam poses a threat second only to a military confrontation with China.
- He warned that sudden releases of water could result in a catastrophic flood, destroying settlements and endangering indigenous communities like the Adi tribe.
- Despite only 30% of the Brahmaputra’s total water flow originating in China, the immediate threat is greatest in Arunachal Pradesh, due to its geographical proximity and the dam’s upstream position.
Could the Chinese Dam Undermine India’s Own Hydropower Potential?
- The dam could impact not only flood patterns but also disrupt water availability for India’s downstream hydroelectric projects.
- The Northeast accounts for nearly 50% of India’s 133 GW hydropower potential, with Arunachal Pradesh alone holding 50 GW — most of it untapped.
- China’s control of upstream water flow could significantly impact future energy security and infrastructure planning in the region.
What Is India Doing to Counter China’s Hydropower Megaproject?
- India has proposed the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project, an 11.2 GW storage-based dam in Arunachal Pradesh.
- This strategic buffer dam aims to regulate water flows, counter artificial floods, safeguard downstream populations and existing infrastructure.
- However, progress has been slow and delayed. Despite being assigned to NHPC Ltd in 2021, critical investigations remain stalled due to local opposition and administrative hurdles.
What Are the Strategic and Environmental Stakes for India?
- Strategic autonomy over river management is at risk
- Biodiversity and tribal livelihoods in the Siang region are under threat
- India must balance environmental sustainability with national security
