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US Strikes Iranian Nuclear Sites
Pakistan’s role in the U.S.-West Asia calculus
Context: On June 22, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a military strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in an already volatile West Asia.
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- This unprecedented move could reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics for decades.
- Echoing previous U.S. interventions in Iraq (1991, 2003) and Libya (2011), quick military gains may lead to long-term destabilisation — not just for Iran, but across the region, including South Asia.
- Following the strikes, President Trump warned of “far greater” attacks unless Iran agrees to “make peace.”
Why the U.S. Is Turning to Pakistan
- Though the meeting between Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff and President Trump was publicly framed in the context of India-Pakistan relations, the timing and context suggest otherwise.
- With the India-Pakistan conflict cooling off, there was no pressing reason for such urgency — unless Pakistan’s role in West Asia was being quietly recalibrated.
- In early June, U.S. CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla praised Pakistan in Senate hearings, especially for its counter-terrorism cooperation and for aiding in the capture of Sharifullah, accused of killing 13 U.S. soldiers during the 2021 Kabul airport bombing.
- While surprising, this shift may reflect the U.S.’s broader West Asia strategy.
- Despite past tensions — including Pakistan’s undermining of U.S. objectives in Afghanistan while receiving $20 billion in aid — Washington may now view Islamabad as a useful counterweight to Iran, especially as regional war looms.
How Complicated and Volatile are Iran-Pakistan Relations?
- Pakistan and Iran have long had a tense relationship marked by border skirmishes, proxy conflicts in Afghanistan, and sectarian divides.
- In early 2024, the two countries exchanged missile strikes after attacks on Iranian security personnel by groups based in Pakistan’s Balochistan.
- Pakistan is also one of the few Muslim-majority nations with nuclear weapons, a status it is keen to preserve. It likely views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a direct challenge to its strategic standing.
- On June 15, coinciding with General Munir’s U.S. visit, Pakistan abruptly closed all but one of its land borders with Iran, citing security concerns.
- This marked a significant break — especially considering Iran’s past support for Pakistan, including in the 1965 Indo-Pak war when the Shah offered sanctuary to the Pakistan Air Force.
A Bigger Strategic Bargain?
- The renewed U.S.-Pakistan engagement seems part of a larger bargain.
- During recent Indo-Pak tensions, the IMF approved a fresh $1.4 billion climate resilience loan to Pakistan.
- This was in addition to the release of $1 billion from a $7 billion IMF package, even as Pakistan’s economy teeters on the brink.
- Pakistan’s defence budget for FY 2025–26, unveiled on June 10, reflects this renewed military focus.
- Defence spending rose by 17% to PKR 3.29 trillion ($11.65 billion), while development spending was slashed by 50%.
- With debt servicing costs consuming 74% of federal revenue, Pakistan’s economy is now almost entirely dependent on foreign aid and loan rollovers from friendly nations.
Balochistan, Gwadar, and the Iran Connection
- Balochistan borders Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province, home to the strategic Chabahar port, a competitor to China-backed Gwadar port in Pakistan.
- In an April speech, Munir reiterated Pakistan’s ideological stance — referencing the two-nation theory, calling Kashmir its “jugular vein,” and branding the Pakistani ideology as “superior.”
- But his primary thrust was clear: to crush Baloch resistance, which continues to challenge Pakistan’s nationhood.
- The Pakistan Army has long used Sunni extremist groups to counter Baloch nationalism.
- These groups have increasingly targeted Shia pilgrims traveling to holy sites in Iran and Iraq, further straining Iran-Pakistan ties.
- These same groups may now be used to weaken Iran’s influence under a tacit understanding with the U.S.
