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Hypersonic Arms Surge: A Dangerous Turn in South Asia’s Security Balance
Hypersonic Arms in South Asia: Racing Toward Instability?
Context: Recently, India reportedly conducted a test of its most advanced hypersonic cruise missile under DRDO’s classified Project Vishnu.
What are Hypersonic Weapons?
- Hypersonic weapons are delivery platforms—missiles, glide vehicles, or drones—that travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (over 6,000 km/h). They are broadly classified into:
- Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs): Launched atop ballistic missiles and glide at hypersonic speeds through the atmosphere.
- Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs): Powered by indigenous scramjet engines, they maintain sustained hypersonic flight within the atmosphere and offer better manoeuvrability and lower radar visibility.
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Key Features:
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- Extremely high speed (Mach 5–10+), drastically reducing enemy response time.
- Enhanced manoeuvrability and lower trajectory make detection and interception extremely difficult.
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- Dual-capable payload delivery—conventional or nuclear.
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- According to the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS, 2024), the primary concern with hypersonics is not just speed but the strategic ambiguity and unpredictability they introduce into deterrence frameworks.
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Why is India Developing Hypersonic Weapons?
- Strategic Motivation: India’s push for hypersonic capabilities is driven by:
- The need for credible deterrence against adversaries like China and Pakistan. During a recent India-Pakistan standoff, India reportedly executed drone-assisted SEAD operations followed by BrahMos strikes, indicating tactical convergence with Israel’s air doctrine post-Yom Kippur War.
- Doctrinal evolution: India’s emphasis has shifted toward precision, time-sensitive strikes in short escalation windows.
- Operational goals: Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD), surgical decapitation strikes, and rapid retaliation options.
Where Does India Stand in Developing a Hypersonic Ecosystem?
- Technological Trajectory:
Where Does China Stand in Developing Hypersonic Weapons?
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Comparative Status:
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- China leads in Asia, with multiple operational hypersonic systems already fielded, including the DF-ZF HGV (deployed under the DF-17 missile).
- In 2021, China tested a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) with a hypersonic glide vehicle, signaling intent to bypass missile defenses.
- Its HGVs are integrated into nuclear and conventional strike doctrines, unlike India’s more ambiguous posture.
- Strategic Implication: The PLA’s hypersonic advancement serves as a catalyst for India’s Project Vishnu and hypersonic drone programs.
- Shaurya Missile (2008, 2020): Mach 7.5; early proof of manoeuvrable nuclear-capable strike systems.
- Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV, 2020): Mach 5.9 at 30 km altitude, powered by indigenous scramjet.
- Project Vishnu (2025): Allegedly tested Mach 8 cruise missile with land-sea-air deployment and dual-capability.
- BrahMos-II (with Russia): Expected to achieve Mach 8 with 1,000–1,500 km range; trials due by 2027.
- RHH-150 Drone: Mach 10-capable UAV with mid-flight agility; under development for reconnaissance and precision targeting.
How Can India Build Collaboration with Like-Minded Partners to Ensure Balance of Power in South Asia?
To maintain strategic stability in South Asia amidst hypersonic advancements, India must pursue targeted partnerships and institutional frameworks. The approach can be structured across six core pillars:
- Strengthen Strategic Technology Partnerships: India must deepen cooperation through platforms like the US-India TRUST initiative, focusing on hypersonics, AI, and space tech. The BrahMos-II venture with Russia can serve as a co-development model with other nations such as France and Japan, enhancing deterrence and interoperability.
- Diversify Indo-Pacific Defence Cooperation: India should expand trilateral and minilateral formats (e.g., India-France-Australia, the Quad) to co-develop counter-hypersonic systems, secure communications, and multi-domain radar networks, ensuring a resilient regional deterrence ecosystem.
- Institutionalise Regional Strategic Stability Dialogues: Propose South Asia Strategic Stability Talks (SSST) to establish missile test pre-notification, upgrade hotlines, and revive a South Asian Missile Restraint Regime (SMRR) 2.0, thereby reducing miscalculation risks.
- Develop a Regional Counter-Hypersonic Defence Ecosystem: Co-deploy systems like directed energy weapons, anti-hypersonic interceptors, and layered missile defence (e.g., THAAD, Iron Dome) with allies, reinforcing maritime and continental deterrence through platforms such as IORA, Quad, and INDO-PACOM.
