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China’s Sphere of Influence in Central Asia
Context: On June 18, 2025, China signed the landmark Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, institutionalising China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), providing it with long-term predictability and a “geopolitical firewall” against external influence.
How does China influence Central Asia to be in its sphere of influence?
- Economic Inducement and Debt Leverage: Through the BRI, China has become the region’s largest trading partner (trade soared to $95 billion in 2024) and a primary source of foreign direct investment.
- However, this creates significant debt dependency, particularly for nations like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whose loans are often collateralised by strategic assets or mineral rights. This economic leverage translates into substantial political influence.
- Infrastructure Capture: China is physically weaving Central Asia into its economic fabric. Projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway and the expansion of the China-Europe rail freight network (over 19,000 trips in 2024) make the region a critical logistical artery for China.
- Institutional and Legal Binding: The 2025 treaty is the culmination of this strategy. It moves from bilateral deals to a multilateral legal framework that:
- Anchors the BRI: Makes BRI commitments legally enforceable.
- Promotes Strategic Exclusivity: Article 3 prohibits member states from joining alliances “directed against” other parties, effectively blocking NATO or other Western-aligned organisations from gaining a foothold.
- Ensures Stability: Provides a dispute resolution mechanism and norms of non-interference, protecting Chinese investments from political instability.
- Strategic Convergence with Russia: Russia’s silent assent to China’s growing primacy in the region, born out of its own economic and geopolitical compulsions post-Ukraine, has removed a major historical obstacle for China.
Why is it concerning for India?
- Strategic Encirclement: Central Asia is part of India’s extended neighborhood. A region dominated by a single, adversarial power like China completes an arc of Chinese influence around India—from Pakistan (via CPEC) to the north (Central Asia) and east (Myanmar, Southeast Asia).
- Undermining India’s Connectivity Projects: China’s infrastructure dominance directly challenges India’s efforts to build alternative connectivity routes to Central Asia, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
- Impact on Energy Security: China’s control over pipelines and trade routes could potentially limit India’s future access to these resources or make it contingent on Chinese goodwill.
- Legitimisation of the BRI and CPEC: The treaty lends international legitimacy to the BRI, which in turn legitimises the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
- Blow to Multilateral Efforts: It weakens the potential of India-backed platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) by creating a China-centric sub-structure within the region that is more cohesive and legally binding.
How has India tried to curb Chinese influence in the region?
- Activating the INSTC: India has prioritised the development of the International North-South Transport Corridor, a multi-modal network linking India to Russia via Iran and Central Asia, to provide an alternative trade route that bypasses China and Pakistan.
- Leadership Engagement: In January 2022, India hosted the first-ever India-Central Asia Summit virtually, elevating its engagement to the highest level.
- Soft Power and Development Partnership: India leverages its historical and cultural connections through:
- Educational Scholarships: Offering ITEC and other scholarships to students and professionals.
- Capacity Building: Training diplomats, officials, and military personnel.
- Medical Diplomacy: Providing pharmaceuticals and medical assistance.
- Joint Working Groups: On areas like Chabahar Port, which is India’s key gateway to Central Asia.
- Security Cooperation: Engaging Central Asian partners through defence exercises and security dialogues, often under the SCO framework, to address shared concerns like terrorism, radicalisation, and drug trafficking.
- Balancing through other Partnerships: India actively engages in forums like the Quad to ensure a broader Indo-Pacific strategy that can counterbalance China’s overall influence, even if indirectly affecting Central Asia.
