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Fallout of the Israel-US Strikes on Iran
A reset in West Asia, a ‘de-escalation’ for the world
Context: The geopolitical landscape of West Asia has undergone a dramatic transformation following joint Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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- These coordinated attacks — carried out with either explicit or tacit approval from most global and regional powers — mark a strategic turning point in the balance of power in the Middle East.
- While European nations issued contradictory and ineffectual statements, key powers like Russia and China, despite their high-profile strategic agreements with Iran, remained passive observers.
A New Strategic Reality: One Nuclear Power, One Dominant Bloc
- Sole Nuclear Power: With Iran’s nuclear ambitions effectively neutralised, Israel now stands as the region’s sole dominant nuclear power.
- Concern of Gulf Nations: Iran’s expanding network of proxies and ideological assertiveness was perceived as a serious strategic threat.
- In response, many Arab states deepened security ties with Israel and the United States, leading to the Abraham Accords and broader normalisation efforts.
- This created the conditions for Israel to take aggressive steps against Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
- Iran’s Influence: With much of Iran’s regional influence rolled back — except in Yemen and parts of Iraq — the Gulf states may no longer feel the need to tolerate unchecked Israeli power. Yet, their capacity to influence the unfolding dynamics remains uncertain.
Ceasefire: A Tactical Pause or the Start of Diplomacy?
- In a rare moment of restraint, Washington announced an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
- This move offers a face-saving off-ramp for Iran, having demonstrated its willingness to retaliate.
- Iran’s ability to target American military assets likely played a role in pushing the U.S. to rein in Israel.
- This ceasefire may also serve as a wake-up call for Gulf nations, revealing their vulnerability.
- Crucially, it opens a window to return to diplomatic dialogue, potentially reviving nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West.
- The Gulf states would do well to support this path to avoid further regional instability, particularly threats like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Israel’s Next Move: Annexation and the “New Middle East”
- Another Crisis: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-standing goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear capacity has been fulfilled, bolstering his political standing.
- His next target appears to be the annexation of the West Bank and potentially Gaza, as outlined in the controversial “New Middle East” map unveiled at the UN.
- Palestinian Cause: The Gulf countries have largely deprioritised the Palestinian cause in exchange for normalisation deals with Israel and closer U.S. ties.
- However, believing that this transactional peace will bring lasting security may prove to be a dangerous miscalculation.
India’s Strategic Silence: Balancing Iran and Israel
- India has maintained a studied silence on the Israel-Iran conflict, echoing its long-standing policy of non-interference.
- While New Delhi shares strategic ties with Israel — notably their support during India’s Operation Sindoor — it also has vital interests with Iran, particularly through the Chabahar Port project that provides access to Central Asia.
- India’s official response has been a carefully worded call for “de-escalation” — ironically similar to the advice it received during its own military stand-offs.
- In a world increasingly indifferent to questions of aggression and legality, India appears focused on safeguarding its energy security and regional connectivity rather than taking sides.
