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Sri Lanka-India Relations Under the NPP
Context: The evolving India–Sri Lanka bilateral relationship has entered a new chapter under Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) government, reflecting a pragmatic shift in its foreign policy as it moves away from historical ideological positions, especially in its recalibrated approach toward New Delhi.
From China Leanings to India Outreach
- Traditionally, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the main force behind the NPP, has had ideological leanings towards China.
- However, contrary to early expectations, the NPP-led administration has prioritised diplomatic engagement with India, adopting a strategic and mature approach to regional diplomacy.
- This transition underlines the party’s departure from a normative anti-India stance to a more realist and policy-driven foreign policy.
- The transformation was influenced by India’s robust support during Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic crisis, when New Delhi extended currency swaps, essential supplies, and lines of credit.
- Recognising this goodwill, the NPP has acknowledged India as a key economic and strategic partner.
- India, too, has reciprocated with proactive engagement—inviting NPP representatives to meet top Indian diplomatic and security leaders ahead of Sri Lanka’s 2024 presidential elections.
- This bilateral warmth signals a broader reset in India-Sri Lanka ties, rooted in political realism and mutual interests.
Realism Over Rhetoric: A Small State Strategy
- Sri Lanka’s foreign policy under the NPP reflects a classic small-state strategy, defined by balancing between major powers and seeking security, economic support, and political autonomy.
- Small states like Sri Lanka often lack military strength, rely heavily on global trade, and face power asymmetries with larger neighbours.
- As such, they pursue non-alignment, multilateral cooperation, and selective engagement to safeguard sovereignty while leveraging strategic geography.
- The NPP’s tilt towards India can be interpreted as an effort to seek economic and geopolitical ‘shelter’, building on the foundations laid by former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.
- The previous government also walked a tightrope between India, China, and the West, engaging all stakeholders while cautiously managing regional sensitivities.
- A case in point: during the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration, the Jaffna Islands renewable energy project was awarded to a Chinese firm, triggering Indian objections. The project was later reassigned to India under a grant—a clear indication of Sri Lanka’s willingness to accommodate India’s strategic interests.
Strengthening Economic and Energy Ties
In recent years, India and Sri Lanka have signed multiple MoUs, reflecting deeper cooperation in defence, energy, and economic connectivity. Key agreements include:
- A bilateral defence MoU signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Colombo in April 2025.
- An electricity grid interconnection pact, aiming to link Sri Lanka to India’s national grid via an undersea transmission line.
- A solar rooftop supply initiative for religious centres.
- A tripartite agreement with the UAE to establish an energy hub at the Trincomalee port.
- These initiatives reflect Sri Lanka’s growing integration into India’s regional infrastructure and strategic networks.
- However, questions have emerged about the transparency, scope, and strategic implications of some of these projects, particularly the defence agreement.
Rising Concerns Over Dependency and Sovereignty
- Despite the growing cooperation, there are growing apprehensions within Sri Lanka about the potential power imbalance in Indo-Sri Lanka ties.
- Critics argue that the lack of public information on high-level agreements could erode national sovereignty and tilt the balance disproportionately in India’s favour.
- The grid interconnectivity plan, for example, though aimed at lowering energy costs and improving regional stability, has triggered concerns over long-term energy dependency on India.
- Sri Lanka’s limited production capacity could struggle to compete with India’s vast and diversified energy sector, potentially affecting local industries.
- Historical memories of Indian interventionism and fears of domination remain alive in public discourse. While New Delhi has tried to present itself as a stabilizing regional power, past grievances linger in parts of Sri Lankan society.
Contentious Kachchatheevu Fishing Dispute
- Among the most pressing unresolved issues is the fishermen’s dispute in the Palk Strait, particularly around Kachchatheevu Island.
- Allegations of Indian bottom trawlers trespassing into Sri Lankan waters have intensified tensions, with concerns over marine resource depletion and economic losses for local fishing communities.
- Simultaneously, Indian fishermen have voiced complaints about detention and alleged mistreatment by the Sri Lankan navy.
- Although the NPP’s manifesto mentioned discouraging illegal fishing, there is limited clarity on enforcement or conflict-resolution mechanisms moving forward.
Domestic Challenges and Political Setbacks
- Despite the government’s proactive diplomacy, public scepticism persists, particularly among sections that view the NPP as inexperienced in handling complex foreign affairs.
- This has manifested in lacklustre performance during the recent local council elections, especially in the Northeast, where traditional political parties regained ground after setbacks in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
- These results suggest that the NPP’s initial honeymoon period is over. Voters are now shifting focus from emotional support to policy outcomes and governance delivery, setting the stage for more critical scrutiny of the regime’s domestic and foreign policies.
