India’s Climate risk for Future

Progress should not just be fast but future-proof

Context: India’s Climate risk for Future is being shaped by rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, and intensifying natural disasters. According to the World Bank, over 80% of India’s population lives in districts exposed to climate-induced disasters.

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• From unrelenting floods in the northeast to heat-induced crop failures in central India, these events are no longer rare or isolated. They are systemic threats to economic stability, public health, and national security. 
• Yet, India’s vulnerability is compounded by a critical shortfall: the absence of a unified framework for assessing climate physical risks (CPRs) — resulting in adaptation efforts that are reactive rather than preventive.

What Are Climate Physical Risks (CPRs)?

• Climate physical risks encompass both acute shocks—such as floods, heatwaves, and cyclones—and chronic stresses, including shifting monsoon patterns and prolonged droughts. 
• While disaster early warning systems mitigate immediate losses, CPRs demand a long-term strategic response. 
• Unlike short-term weather forecasts, CPRs rely on climate projections that assess how risks evolve over decades, allowing decision-makers to plan for a changing climate.

A Global Dilemma: Mitigation vs Adaptation

• Globally, climate action has often oscillated between mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (coping with climate impacts). 
  • While adaptation has traditionally been a priority for the Global South, recent climate disasters in the Global North, such as wildfires, heatwaves, and cyclones, underscore its universal relevance.
• However, climate finance remains skewed towards mitigation, particularly investments in renewable energy and decarbonisation. 
  • Adaptation measures such as climate-resilient infrastructure receive significantly less support. This is short-sighted, given that investments in adaptation are not just essential for survival but economically sound. 
  • The UN Environment Programme estimates that every $1 spent on adaptation yields a $4 return through reduced economic losses and disaster recovery costs.

Understanding Risk

• CPRs are not solely about extreme weather — they are about how vulnerable and exposed people, businesses, and infrastructure are to such hazards. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines CPR as a function of three key components:
  • Hazards: Floods, heatwaves, cyclones, and other climate extremes
  • Exposure: The people, assets, and infrastructure at risk
  • Vulnerability: A system’s ability to absorb and recover from shocks
• It’s this interplay — not any one variable in isolation — that determines the true scale of climate risk. Yet this understanding is not reflected in India’s current policy architecture.

India’s Fragmented Risk Landscape

• Despite the growing urgency, India’s approach to CPR assessment remains fragmented. While countries like the U.S., U.K., and New Zealand have developed national CPR frameworks that directly inform policy and finance, India’s efforts are scattered across various government agencies, research institutions, and private initiatives — each employing different hazard types, time horizons, and methodologies.
• India does have valuable tools in place:
  • Flood maps from IIT Gandhinagar
  • Vulnerability atlases from the India Meteorological Department
  • Disaster frameworks from the National Institute of Disaster Management
    • However, the lack of integration and standardisation means there’s no central repository for CPR data. 
• Further, global climate models like the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) often lack the granularity needed for India’s hyper-local climate realities. 
• Without a centralised, standardised climate risk database, both public and private stakeholders struggle to make informed decisions.

Climate Risk as a Financial Imperative

• CPRs are no longer just an environmental issue — they are central to business continuity and financial stability. Regulatory bodies worldwide are shifting from voluntary climate disclosures to mandatory risk reporting. 
• In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is integrating climate risks into its regulatory framework, while the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) ISSB S2 provides global benchmarks for CPR disclosures.
• Without credible and consistent CPR assessments, Indian firms risk underestimating liabilities, misallocating capital, and facing investor scrutiny. 
• The need for a shared, science-based risk assessment framework is no longer optional — it’s essential for economic resilience.

Filling the Gaps: India’s Recent Initiatives

• India has taken steps to align with Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, which mandates all nations to establish National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) by 2025 and demonstrate progress by 2030.
  • In 2023, India submitted its first Adaptation Communication report.
  • A more comprehensive NAP is in development, covering nine thematic sectors with district-level resolution.
• This is a promising beginning. But to go from intention to impact, India must create a dedicated CPR assessment tool that serves both the public and private sectors. This tool must:

• Localised climate models tailored to India’s geographic and socio-economic diversity
• High-resolution risk assessments by district or sub-district
• A centralised climate risk data hub
• Transparent, science-based methodologies with continuous feedback loops

• Only then can governments design climate-resilient infrastructure, businesses manage climate-linked supply chain disruptions, and citizens benefit from proactive disaster planning.

A Future-Proof India

• As India pursues the goal of Viksit Bharat (Developed India), climate resilience must be foundational to every strategy. Economic growth that is vulnerable to floods, heatwaves, and droughts is not just unsustainable — it is self-defeating.
• Robust climate risk assessments are not a choice but a necessity. They ensure that India’s progress is not just rapid but resilient, future-proof, and equitable.

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The Source’s Authority and Ownership of the Article is Claimed By THE STUDY IAS BY MANIKANT SINGH