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Civil Nuclear Deal: Why Saudi Arabia Seeks US Cooperation
Civil Nuclear Deal Talks: Saudi Arabia’s Push for US Partnership
Context: Saudi Arabia and the United States are negotiating a deal to cooperate on the kingdom’s ambitions to develop a civilian nuclear industry, an area long overshadowed by concerns over weapons proliferation.
Why Does Saudi Arabia Want a Nuclear Program?
- Economic Diversification (Vision 2030):
Alternatives If the U.S. Deal Fails
Saudi Arabia is already engaging other countries that may offer nuclear support without the stringent nonproliferation demands of the U.S.:
- China: Signed a nuclear safety MoU with Saudi Arabia (April 2025), already helping with uranium surveys.
- Russia: Rosatom has existing agreements with Riyadh.
- South Korea: Built UAE’s reactors, seen as a credible partner.
France: Another experienced nuclear exporter in consideration.
- Saudi Arabia aims to reduce its dependence on oil revenues by diversifying its energy sources under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030.
- Nuclear energy would allow the kingdom to:
- Free up more crude oil for export rather than burning it for domestic power.
- Support energy-intensive sectors like water desalination and air conditioning more sustainably.
- Energy Efficiency and Carbon Reduction:
- 32% of Saudi electricity currently comes from burning oil and 68% from natural gas (as of recent estimates).
- Replacing some of this with nuclear power helps:
- Lower carbon emissions, aligning with global climate commitments.
- Reduce domestic oil consumption—up to 1.4 million barrels per day during peak months like June.
- Strategic Deterrence vis-à-vis Iran:
- Riyadh has stated that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia may follow suit.
- This conditional stance is seen as:
- A pressure tactic against Tehran.
- A potential concern for nuclear proliferation in the region.
- Uranium Enrichment Ambitions:
- Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in enriching uranium and producing yellowcake fuel, ostensibly for civilian use and potential export.
- This raises proliferation concerns, especially if enrichment is not tightly safeguarded.
What Does the U.S. Gain From a Deal?
- Strategic Leverage:
- A civil nuclear deal strengthens U.S. influence in the region, countering growing Chinese and Russian engagement.
- It can provide transparency into Saudi nuclear activities, reducing the risk of weapons-grade enrichment.
- Commercial Opportunities:
- American firms could secure contracts to build and operate nuclear power plants.
- Potential for long-term involvement in fuel supply chains, training, and regulatory oversight.
- Nonproliferation Leverage:
- Under Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (1954), any civil nuclear cooperation requires:
- Strict nonproliferation commitments.
- Congressional review and approval.
- A 123 Agreement with Saudi Arabia would help ensure safeguards and prevent diversion to military use.
- Under Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (1954), any civil nuclear cooperation requires:
Key Points of Contention in Negotiations
- Uranium Enrichment on Saudi Soil:
- Riyadh wants domestic enrichment capacity.
- Washington is wary unless strict safeguards (“black box” models) are applied—limiting Saudi access to sensitive technologies.
Strategic Objectives of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is positioning itself at the intersection of energy modernization and regional power politics:
- It wants nuclear energy for legitimate civilian and economic purposes.
- But its security concerns with Iran and resistance to strict U.S. conditions raise nonproliferation red flags.
- The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal, if concluded, will shape Middle Eastern nuclear dynamics and global energy geopolitics for decades.
- Access and Oversight:
- Who controls the facility (Saudi personnel vs. U.S. staff)?
- Will Saudi Arabia agree to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and full transparency?
- Geopolitical Strings:
- Previously, U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation was tied to normalizing ties with Israel, but this has now been decoupled.Riyadh insists on Palestinian statehood before recognizing Israel.
